Engineering assessments of future high wind
and solar power penetration tend to focus on central estimates and may
understate or ignore the significance of low probability outcomes that may have
extremely severe consequences (extending to but no limited to catastrophic
risks). This relative neglect of tail risks is partly a result of traditions in
prediction and forecasting, and conservatism about phenomena for which very few data and information exist.
Wind Turbine on Fire (Daily Mail UK)
The misinterpretation of such engineering
assessments can have adverse results. Even though the central estimates of high(1)
wind and solar power penetration scenarios present obvious dangers, the tails
of lower wind and solar power penetration scenarios still contain very serious
risks which may be overlooked by policy-makers. Economic analyses may omit the
possibility of catastrophic impacts, leading to substantial under-estimates of
damage caused by high wind and solar power penetration.
2003 Blackout from Preparede-org.
Hint: The dark gulf in the NE USA isn´t a body of water
Blackouts like the one in 2003 will
likely be much more frequent when wind and solar penetration exceeds 15 %. We face a disaster of enormous proportions, but lack the means to communicate this awful truth to the public.
So how do we avoid these
shortcomings and achieve more effective communication about the risks of high wind and solar power penetration?
The engineering assessments of wind
and solar power penetration differ in significant ways from the formal risk
assessment methods successfully employed in other fields. We outline a ‘good
practice’ approach to the identification, assessment and communication of
potentially catastrophic risks based on examples from organizations such the American Geophysical Union, political campaigns, as well as speeches by
We illustrate how this ‘good
practice’ approach could be applied to provide a better presentation of some
catastrophic tail risks that are outlined in the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Wind and Solar Power Use.
The risks we consider
include the possibility of ‘extreme’ drops in electricity voltage and supply lying
outside the central projections described in the report, and the plausibility
of significant economic disasters resulting from brownouts and blackouts taking
place on a very frequent basis. The
risks can also be illustrated with substation transformer explosions and
similar events.
Substation explosion and fire (Hulldailymail uk)
Using these illustrations, we
examine how engineering researchers can improve their communication about wind
and solar power penetration to assist decision-making, and how policy-makers
and politicians might respond differently to alternative presentations of
information about the tail risks.
1 Here we define high wind and solar power
penetration as having a grid in which these sources deliver over 15 % of the electric power, in a self-contained and isolated grid system
with trailing response power storage capacity less than 5 % of the total 10 day load.
Reference
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