8/28/2019

Brazil Fires email by Hugo Fernando Maia Milan

I just wrote a post about it (inobio-manera.fcav.unesp.br/index.php/2019/08/28/...). I am including it here with more details. Hope it helps!

I am originally from the Amazon rainforest region (I grew up in the state of Rondônia). Brazilians strongly believe we should preserve the forest but, at the same time, bring economic development.

Before I dive-in into this discussion, I would like to clarify some common misconceptions:

a) I agree with Dallas Weaver, most of the O2 produced by the Amazon rainforest is consumed by the forest itself, as demonstrated by previous research (https://www.nature.com/articles/35002062https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12957). The liquid amount of O2 production from the Amazon rainforestis almost zero. We should revise the common misconception that the Amazon is the lung of the world. The main source of global liquid O2 are the blue algae in the ocean, which might be strongly affected by the radioactive waste (mostly from Nuclear Power Plants) dumped in the oceans by developed countries in the period from 1946 to 1993 (http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2017/ph241/jones-a2/).

b) I agree with Olger Linares. Most developed countries, which had almost completely deforested their territory, focus on slowing down developing countries. Instead of taking more impactful initiatives, such as reforesting their territory or fostering sustainable development, they invest on promoting farming in their countries and on fighting against any development of the developing countries. For instance, see the campaign "Farms here, forest there" (http://assets.usw.org/our-union/pulp-paper-forestry/farms-here-forests-there-report-5-26-10.pdf) supported by the American National Farmers Union.

c) As I discuss below, the Federal Government has strict laws regarding the protection of the ALL Brazilian forests. Burning is illegal in Brazil since 1998 (law 9.605/1998). In addition, President Jair Bolsonaro is doing everything under his power to protect the forest, even sending military forces to fight against illegal burning of the forest and to fight wildfires. This is the first year of his term and he is the ONLY president who demonstrated attitude towards sustainable developing the Amazon region and in protecting the forest. One curious fact is that several NGOs are seen in the Amazon rainforest region. In this region, people live sustainable with a strong connection with the forest. Curious enough is why we see so much NGOs in such an region with so much natural richness and not in the poorest Northeastern parts of Brazil. The Northeastern is marked by strong droughts but with rich underground water vessels. The potential impact of the NGOs on reducing inequality and improving life quality in the Northeastern is huge.

d) What we see are wildfires or small illegal fires. In total, the burning was estimated to be around 200 km2 (a 0.0036% of the total 5,500,000 km2 of Amazon rainforest region; brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2019/08/23/politica/...en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_rainforest). 

The huge increase in fire we see in the media is on the number of fires, not in the burned area. In comparison, in 2018, the wildfire in California (which accounted for 21% of all territory burned in the United States; www.latimes.com/local/lanow/...) was ~40 times bigger (7664 km2; en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California_wildfires) and burned 5.74% of the California Forest (133,546 km2, roughly 2.4% of the size of the Amazon rainforest region; ucanr.edu/sites/forestry/California_forests). 

8/27/2019

Referendum on the creation of a Police Force

Yesterday I wrote a "Proposal: Conduct a referendum of Venezuelans abroad to indicate whether they support the creation of a police force and call for international assistance invoking the TIAR." Then sent it to a few friends to see if they liked it. The first answer I received is copied below: 

Fernando,

Proposing the referendum to see if Venezuelan exiles want to support creating a police force is a good initiative, but…  Venezuelans want high level jobs ...  that cause is lost, because the politicians and citizens want jobs.  

Look, between January and May I was working full on the country's recovery program and more than half of the time was spent listening to how the "experts" created arguments to justify being given the X or Y position. 

Some shamelessly told me to put them in a position such that they could create a service company and from that position give them contracts and then leave.  These were not chavistas, they were fuck ex-PDVSA employees! 

Also when I raised the need to create an armed force in exile and prepare us to recover the country, no one responded, all of them want Trump to send troops, pay with US dead, free the country, and give them to them so that they can share all the important jobs.  They tell me that they are non-military and that they are more valuable thinking about the recovery… 

Anyway, in my opinion, based on the stupidities I see, Venezuela is going to reach a point of co-habitation where the Chavistas continue  to hold power and the opposition will have one or another position.  

And US sanctions are going to stay there, because the USA wants to neutralize a competitor in the commodities market. I personally thank you for your concern for Venezuela, but that country has people who are comfortable in this terrible conditions and will not react!

 A hug!

6/07/2019

Spanish socialist teacher suggests castrating boys

A socialist party leader who belongs to the City Council of Puerto del Rosario (Fuerteventura), Aurelia Vera Rodriguez, said in one of her classes - she is a language teacher at the middle school Santiago de Alcalá in that town - that "children have to be castrated  at birth".  The students of 4th of ESO were stunned by the postulates of their teacher.

 During one of her classes to children between 14 and 15 years old, Vera, who just won re-election om May 26th, addresses the boys in her class, telling them that "they cut you the penis and nothing happens to you",  that we have to "make men stop governing, so that they give power to us.  Will they voluntarily do it?  No. We have to resort to selective castration. "

This teacher has been denounced of teaching abusive feminist doctrine during her classes.  Fortunately one of the students recorded her, and this recording has been presented as proof.  The official complaint has been filed by Francisco de Asís Serrano Castro, deputy and president of the Vox parliamentary group in Andalusia.

Translated and summarized from 


The recording was played in Antena 3 here 

3/30/2019

The IPCC 1.5 degree report summary authors

The IPCC released a report which included a "Summary for Policy Makers" titled "Global warming of 1.5 C". This report was prepared to justify the Paris Meeting "aspiration" to limit the world's average temperature increase to 1.5degrees C. This aspiration seems to have been pulled out of the hat during the meeting, but now it seems to be the politically correct target. A target that's impossible to achieve. 

I should point out I consider the IPCC approach, to consolidate the content of numerous papers into one report, without doing much original work to support their conclusions and prescriptions, to be seriously flawed. The IPCC and the politicians behind it intend its content to be used to justify policies which would cost $ trillions (10^12), are impractical, have no sound engineering, project feasibility or schedule, or economics analysis to back them. 

In other words, they intend to use a nearly religious worship of "wise scientists" who have absolutely no idea of what it costs to get things done, nor know how to choose the best alternatives, to drive the developed world (excluding China and Russia who aren't about to participate in these lemmings jump over the cliff policies) into adopting what's evidently mad hatter policies. 

I was curious to see who was responsible for the Summary for Policy Makers, so I took a few hours to research their backgrounds. Summarizing, they are all climate scientists, some with a lot of experience, with a staff of very young recent graduates. The most powerful positions are held by Europeans, men from China, India, and Africa, and a South African (Debra Roberts) whose career has been hard to descipher, listed as "local government practitioner-scientist". 

The only one exposed to economics modeling is the Indian fellow, who has experience in dynamic models which ought to include economics modules. 

The summary of the "Summary for Policy Makers" most relevant participants follows: 

Valerie Masson-Delmotte is a French climate scientists and Research Director at the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission. Her doctoral thesis was "Climate simulation of the Holocene means using general circulation models of the atmosphere; Impacts of parameterization”

After her PhD, Masson-Delmotte began working as a researcher at the the Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences. She became head of a paleoclimate group in 2010, head of a research group in 1998, and completed her habilitation in 2004. Since 2008, she has been the Research Director/Senior Scientist at CEA. Her research includes water vapour monitoring and combines past climate variability (ice cores, tree rings) with simulations, to address current climate models.

Panmao Zhai has in B. S. degree in Climatology, Nanjing University, and M. S. degree in Physical climatology, Nanjing University. He is a Research professor in the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, the largest multi-disciplinary and comprehensive research institution on atmospheric sciences in China. 

He has more than 30-years working experience in climate change and variability studies. He has published more than 100 papers in Chinese and English. Leads a group of meteorologists, studying the formation mechanism and prediction method for persistent extreme events in China.

Hans-Otto Pörtner is a German ecologist and climate researcher.  He heads the Department of Integrative Ecophysiology at the Alfred Wegener Institute. He received his doctorate in 1983 at the Westphalian Wilhelms University and the Heinrich Heine University in Zoology. Since 2005, Pörtner has been a professor at the Alfred Wegener Institute and the University of Bremen.

His work includes the effects of climate change, ocean acidification, and hypoxia on marine animals and ecosystems, with a focus on the links between ecological, physiological, biochemical, and molecular mechanisms that limit tolerance and shape biogeography and ecosystem functions. 

Debra Roberts. PhD in Urban Biogeography at the (then) University of Natal, South Africa, Debra Roberts initially pursued a career as a researcher. Currently Head of the Sustainable and Resilient City Initiatives Unit in eThekwini Municipality in South Africa. She is described as "A local government practitioner-scientist with over 30 years experience in addressing and documenting urban climate change adaptation and biodiversity planning and management in Durban, South Africa."

James Skea is a Scottish academic, PhD in Physics at Cavendish Laboratory in 1979. Professor of Sustainable Energy at Imperial College London's Centre for Environmental Policy, and a member of the Bureau of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the British government's Committee on Climate Change.

Priyadarshi Shukla, Distinguished Professor, Amrut Mody School of Management and Chair, Global Centre for Environment and Energy.

PhD (Stanford University). Area of study: Management Science and Engineering. Areas of interest: Energy Efficiency, Energy-Environment Modelling, Renewable Technologies, Decentralized Planning, Integrated Assessment Modelling and Climate Change Policy Analysis.

Anna Pirani  ICPO Executive Deputy Director (?) at Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP). Coordinates development of ocean computer models. 

Wilfran Moufouma-Okia PhD in Mechanics of geophysical
environments, Polytechnic national institute (INP), Grenoble, France. He worked a decade for the UK Met Office Hadley Centre as “Senior regional climate modelling scientist” – leading the development, configuration, evaluation and dissemination worldwide of spatially detailed weather and climate prediction systems. 

Sarah Connors PhD Atmospheric Chemistry University of Cambridge, Centre for Atmospheric Science. Graduated in 2015. Thesis title: "Development of a method for estimating methane emissions at high resolution". 

Sarah has been a Science Officer at the WGI TSU since January 2017, working on both the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C and the Special Report on Climate Change and Land, as well as the main WGI report. Her main activities include coordination of the Frequently Asked Questions (link to SR1.5°C FAQs?) and the Chapter Scientists for SR1.5°C and the forthcoming IPCC AR6 report.

Tom Maycock holds a Bachelor’s Degree with a double major in Physics and English Literature from Northwestern University. He earned a Master of Liberal Arts and Science degree from the University of North Carolina at Asheville in December 2018.