Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century energy budget.
Here I revisit estimates of Industrial Period Temperature Rise rise using probabilistic techniques, and find a rate of temperature rise from 1850 to 2020 of 0.01 ± 0.19 degrees per year (90% confidence interval).
Figure 1. High Temperature can burn planet to a crisp
My analysis, which combines thermometer records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that temperature rose and fell at a rate of 39.0 ± 0.27 millidegrees per year between 1850 and 1980, consistent with prior estimates from tree ring records. The increase in rate relative to the 1850–90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future temperature rise.
Figure 2. Graph shows the actual data and the model
reanalysis, which proves the real data was wrong.
This is important. Please focus your eyes on the graph above. The rise per year is a rate, the slope of the line is the acceleration. From this plot my groupies can say that the acceleration has been monotonically positive since ~1990 and not far off from lines, implying polynomially growth in temperature masked by natural climate oscillations. This I have derived using my computer model (CGCM-FL-BS).
To accomplish this, I revisit the analysis of temperature since the middle of last century using Kalman smoothing. This statistical technique naturally accommodates spatially sparse and temporally incomplete sampling of a global temperature field, provides a rigorous, probabilistic framework for uncertainty propagation, and can correct for a distribution of GIA and ocean models. I applied the approach to analyse annual records from 16 temperature devices and 1046 tree ring reconstructions, included in the Permanent Service for Paleoclimatology at a famous US University. A Revised Local Reference database and reconstruction of the global field of temperature change for each year from 1900 to 2020 is included in this opus.
This estimate closes the energy budget for 1850 to 2020 estimated in AR5 (ref. 7) without appealing to an underestimation of individual contributions from ocean thermal chicanery, drifting satellites, or improper placement of temperatures in parking lots.
Moreover, it may contribute to the ultimate resolution of “Schlup’s temperature enigma” (defined by the argument that Earth temperature measurements and bounds on warming are inconsistent with a rate of temperature rise beginning in the late 1970´s), since it may increase the signal of early twentieth century temperature, reducing the scariness of the temperature rises we wish to see in recent years.
Main Climate Communication Message:
In conclusion, and as can be seen in the graph, the temperature rise hasn´t been as shown by the data. The current climate crisis is a lot worse than anybody imagined, and we may have to stop burning fossil fuels within weeks if we want to avoid cooking the planet. Pass it on.