Based on individual contributions tabulated in
the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
this estimate closes the twentieth-century energy budget.
Figure 1. High Temperature can burn planet to a
crisp
My analysis,
which combines thermometer records with
physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals,
also indicates that temperature rose and fell at a rate of 39.0 ± 0.27 millidegrees per year between 1850 and 1980, consistent
with prior estimates from tree ring
records. The increase in rate relative to the 1850–90 trend is
accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some
projections of future temperature rise.
Figure 2. Graph shows the actual
data and the model
reanalysis, which proves the real data was wrong.
This is important. Please focus your
eyes on the graph above. The rise per
year is a rate, the slope of the line is the acceleration. From this plot my groupies can say that the acceleration has been
monotonically positive since ~1990 and not far off from lines, implying
polynomially growth in temperature masked by natural climate oscillations. This
I have derived using my computer model (CGCM-FL-BS).
To accomplish this, I revisit the
analysis of temperature since the middle
of last century using Kalman smoothing. This statistical technique naturally
accommodates spatially sparse and temporally incomplete sampling of a global temperature field, provides a rigorous, probabilistic
framework for uncertainty propagation, and can correct for a distribution of
GIA and ocean models. I applied the
approach to analyse annual records from 16 temperature devices and 1046 tree
ring reconstructions, included in the
Permanent Service for Paleoclimatology at a famous US University. A Revised Local Reference database and
reconstruction of the global field of
temperature change for each year from 1900 to 2020 is included in this opus.
This estimate closes the energy
budget for 1850 to 2020 estimated in AR5
(ref. 7) without appealing to an underestimation of individual contributions
from ocean thermal chicanery, drifting satellites, or improper placement of
temperatures in parking lots.
Moreover, it may contribute to the
ultimate resolution of “Schlup’s temperature enigma” (defined by the argument that
Earth temperature measurements and
bounds on warming are inconsistent with a rate of temperature rise beginning in the late 1970´s), since it
may increase the signal of early twentieth century temperature, reducing the
scariness of the temperature rises we wish to see in recent years.
Main Climate Communication Message:
In conclusion, and as can be seen in the graph, the temperature rise hasn´t been as shown by the data. The current climate crisis is a lot worse than anybody imagined, and we may have to stop burning fossil fuels within weeks if we want to avoid cooking the planet. Pass it on.
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