Maduro comes out of the closet

Nicolás Maduro is facing a recall referendum which he's likely to lose. The Venezuelan constitution says that, if the referendum takes place in 2016 and Maduro loses, elections must be held to pick a new president. But it also says that, if the referendum takes place in 2017, Maduro's hand picked vicepresident becomes his successor. This is the reason why the regime is using illegal measures to delay the recall referendum until 2017, moves which lead to street demonstrations, and which in turn drove Maduro to declare an emergency and a "state of exception" which amounts to a self coup. As of right now,  for all intents and purposes, Maduro is running a military dictatorship covered by a thin veneer of democracy. 

Maduro and his generals
The opposition, which controls 2/3 of the National Assembly, insists it will press on with demonstrations. But the regime does have military and security agency backing. And it also has an extensive Castro dictatorship presence in Venezuela, including military as well as secret police. In a sense, we can think of Venezuela as a Cuban protectorate/quasi colony. 

Maduro´s regime appears to be a subsidiary
 of the Castro family dictatorship

This point seems to have escaped the opposition leaders, which keep forgetting they face Raúl Castro in a very high level struggle. The current situation led me to write the following thoughts at "The Devils Excrement":
I  would announce that if the dictatorship delays the referendum past mid December the referendum is off. I hear Raúl Castro and the Venezuelan decision makers (which include Cilia Flores, Padrino, Tareck, etc) agree that Maduro needs to be replaced. They are counting on a better manager and climbing oil prices to get out of the hole. 
This means the opposition, if it proceeds with the referendum in 2017, will be playing into their hands. 
To win this game you do have to accept that you are playing high level chess with Raúl Castro. This is a conflict between Venezuelans and a stealth invasion force which has colonized the country. But you are too proud to face it. What amazes me is that chavismo has given you a rallying cry to unite Venezuelans against a real foreign enemy. This isn’t about imaginary forces sent by uribe from Colombia, this is about real Cuban military and security personnel running Venezuela, and Venezuelans sitting on their behinds ignoring the truth. 
If you ever manage to accept what’s going on, then your moves have to be made to isolate Maduro and a few traitorous Venezuelans and the Cuban dictatorship on one side, and the majority of Venezuelans on the other. Once you get the idea, and understand that you do need to use strikes as a weapon, you have a slim chance. 

 Maduro appears to be a true believer in Marx, Lenin, and Fidel Castro´s old ideas. But Raul Castro seems to be aiming at a hybrid system, more of a mix of Fidel´s stalinist marxism with Franco´s fascism, whereby a dictator backed by a party and military oligarchy allies with foreign investors and possibly a few well-connected citizens (in Venezuela these would be the oil multinationals, Chinese and Russian companies, the Cisnero family,  and others of their ilk).

Maduro seems to have a mix of communism
 and fascism  in his head. Here we see him 
making his customary (subliminal?) nazi salute. 
Don’t count on outside help. Obama, the Pope, the EU, all of them have demonstrated they are siding with the Castro Mafia. 

Raul Castro with President Obama

This means you will need a miracle to get rid of the regime.


2 comentarios:

  1. Brilliant analysis, Fernando. Please don't forget, however, that Putin is also stirring the pot, talent scouting and building influence.

    1. Thanks! Putin is dabbling in response to USA aggressiveness, encroaching on Russian territory in Ukraine and Caucasus. USA foreign policy seems to be designed to stir hornets and act innocent.