Summary: Research shows global warming will cause more deaths from hypothermia as people (in particular children) fall through abnormaly thin ice.
Scientists at the University of Southern Australia have published a paper in “Nature Climate Catastrophe”, documenting the coupling of their climate and human behavior models applied to iced over ponds in Europe, Asia, and North America.
Results show a 21 % mortality increase in the Business as Usual Case, when CO2 concentration reaches 860 ppm. The total number of additional deaths caused by the 9 degree C temperature increase, is 22,856,300 through the year 2300. Of these, 57 % are little children, the least situationally aware portion of the population.
Children are increasingly falling through
thin ice due to global warming.
The heart breaking statistic about increased child mortality, caused by the global warming/falling through thin ice link, was estimated using the ICES Message Climate Risk model, developed at the University’s Climate Catastrophe Institute”.
We know very well that future climate warming could lead to tens of thousands to millions of additional deaths each year from abnormal heat in the winter, as calculated by extrapolating statistical relationships and without considering potential adaptive changes (such as parents teaching children not to walk on thin ice).
The higher temperature regime caused by global warming is what we emphasize in this paragraph. Global warming reduces ice thickness according to the relationship between energy content of water and its physical state (ice melts on warm days).
Our study also confirms that climate change causes tolerance to heat, which in turn disconnects the population in cold environments from their intuitive feel for ice strength (native Minnesotans, Finns and Russians are well known for their ability to discern the ability of ice to support a person´s weight). This missing intuition causes the subject to walk or drive on thin ice, fall through, and die.
Once the world is a lot hotter winter ice will disappear.
But the earth will be dry and almost everybody will die
Health Agencies interested in supporting the proper response to this menace should insist that measures be taken to cool down the planet by reducing CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. If they don´t they must be prepared to face the higher child mortality caused by climate changed induced catastrophes.